In the high-stakes world of iGaming and sports betting, the "Cost Per Acquisition" (CPA) has long been the primary metric for success. Operators pour millions into campaigns, celebrating every time they secure a First Time Deposit (FTD) at a lower-than-average cost.
But there is a silent killer lurking in these spreadsheets: the quality gap.
Not all players are created equal. A $10 deposit from a "bonus hunter" who never returns is fundamentally different from a $50 deposit from a high-intent player with a high Predictive Lifetime Value (pLTV). If your bidding strategy treats them the same, you aren't just wasting budget—you’re actively teaching ad algorithms to find you more "cheap," low-value players.
It’s time to shift from volume to value. It’s time for smarter bidding using downstream signals.
What are downstream signals?
In performance marketing, a signal is any data point fed back to an ad platform (like Google Ads or Meta) to help its AI understand who to target next.
- Upstream Signals: these are shallow actions, like a click, an app install, or a registration. They tell you someone is interested, but they tell you nothing about profitability.
- Downstream Signals: these are deep, post-acquisition actions. They include repeat deposits, game-play frequency, and, most importantly, contribution margin.
By feeding these downstream insights back into the ad auction, you move away from simple target CPA bidding and toward value based bidding (VBB). You stop telling the platform "find me a deposit" and start telling it "find me profit."
The 72 hour problem
The biggest hurdle to smarter bidding has always been time. Traditional pLTV models can take 30 to 90 days to become accurate. By the time you realize a cohort of players is low-value, your ad budget is already spent.
Ad algorithms need feedback fast, usually within the first few days, to optimize effectively. This is where Intelitics changes the game.
Our platform calculates player pLTV within the first 72 hours of activity. By analyzing early-session behavior, deposit patterns, and game preferences, we generate a high-confidence "Value Signal" almost instantly. This allows operators to:
- Close the loop: send high-quality margin data back to the ad network while the campaign is still active.
- Optimize in real-time: the AI can immediately see that User A is worth 10x more than User B and adjust its bids accordingly.
- Reduce waste: stop bidding on ghost traffic and bonus hunters before they drain your monthly budget.
The impact: efficiency over volume
The results of switching to downstream signaling are often counterintuitive. In many cases, your total number of conversions might actually go down—but your get gaming revenue (NGR) goes up.
At Intelitics, we’ve seen this strategy allow operators to reduce inefficient traffic volume by as much as 73% while simultaneously seeing an increase in total deposit value. This is the definition of working smarter, not harder. You are no longer paying for the crowd; you are paying for the players.
The future of acquisition
As privacy regulations tighten and third-party cookies disappear, your first-party data is your only remaining competitive advantage. Advertisers who rely solely on upstream signals will find themselves stuck in a race to the bottom, paying higher and higher CAC for lower and lower quality.
Smarter bidding is about taking control of the machine. By using Intelitics' deep-funnel measurement, you aren't just tracking what happened—you’re predicting what will happen and using that foresight to win the auction.
Is your data working for your bidding strategy, or against it?
